Global agrifood R&D slowdown and the case for doubling investment
January 27, 2026
By Shaun Coffey FTSE FAIA CRSNZ FAICD
The world is facing a dangerous slowdown in agricultural innovation just as rising populations, climate pressure, and supply-chain disruptions are increasing demand. Public agrifood R&D must be doubled now because the returns are large, the risks of underinvestment are enormous, and the costs of inaction will persist for decades. This is the core message from a research paper by Philip Pardey, Distinguished Global Professor, Science and Technology Policy, University of Minnesota and Director, GEMS Information Centre, who recently presented at a seminar hosted by The Crawford Fund for Food Security’s ACT Committee.
The published paper details are:
Pardey, P. G., Chan-Kang, C., Stads, G.-J., Chai, Y., Alston, J. M., Greyling, J. & Muñoz, H. (2025). Food will be more affordable — if we double funds for agriculture research now. Nature, 648(8093), 271–274.
Below is a summary of the key points made in the paper.
1. Food Prices Are Rising Due in Part to an R&D Slowdown
- Global food prices are climbing, driven not only by climate extremes, conflict, and supply chain disruptions, but also by a long-term slowdown in public and private investment in agricultural science.
- Production has grown over the past 40 years mainly through productivity gains driven by research, not by expanding land.
- Because R&D takes decades to translate into farm-level gains, today’s investment decline will lock in higher food prices for many years.
2. Global Agrifood R&D Growth Has Slowed Sharply
- Between 1980–2015, real agrifood R&D spending grew 2.7 percent annually.
- Between 2015–2021, this dropped to 1.9 percent.
- Over one-third of countries now spend less than before; over half have slowed their growth.
- Declines occurred across all income groups: High-income countries: growth slowed from 2 percent to 1 percent. Middle-income countries: 3.8 percent → 2.7 percent. Low-income countries: 2.3 percent → 1.7 percent.
3. Three Major Shifts in Global Agricultural Science
a) A worldwide spending slowdown
- Nearly half of all countries have reduced or stagnated public R&D budgets.
- High-income nations show evidence of complacency, despite high returns to investment (USD 1 invested generates USD 10 in social returns).
b) Middle-income countries dominate
- Middle-income countries now produce 73 percent of the world’s agricultural output (up from 56 percent in 1980).
- China, India, and Brazil account for 41 percent of global output and are now among the top five R&D spenders.
- The United States has fallen behind China, and also behind India in public-sector agricultural research.
c) Private sector investment is rising, but cannot replace public funding
- Private R&D increased from 32 percent (1980) to about 50 percent (2021) of total global agrifood R&D.
- In upper-middle-income countries, private R&D jumped from 15 percent to 54 percent.
- Private R&D focuses on commercialised, patentable technologies, not fundamental science or public goods such as: improved soil management climate-resilient crops water use efficiency biodiversity preservation This creates a structural gap that only public research can fill.
4. Fewer Countries Are Carrying the Load
- In 2021, the top 10 countries accounted for 69 percent of global agrifood R&D spending.
- The bottom 50 countries accounted for only 0.5 percent (down from 1 percent in 1980).
- Growing concentration increases global vulnerability, leaving many countries dependent on imported technologies that may not transfer effectively.
5. R&D Lags Mean Trouble Ahead
- Biological limits make exponential productivity growth impossible; yield improvements are slowing.
- For example, time to achieve a 50 percent increase in global yields: Wheat: 12 years (1960s) → 31 years today Rice: 20 years → 40 years Soybean: 16 years → 34 years.
- Climate change and natural resource degradation further reduce gains.
Consequences of continued underinvestment include:
- higher food prices
- more hunger and malnutrition
- increased environmental degradation
- heightened risk of conflict or instability
- loss of long-term competitiveness in agriculture
6. Long-term Implications for Global Food Security
- Investment today will determine global food prices in the 2040s and 2050s.
- The world must increase annual agrifood R&D investment simply to maintain current productivity growth.
- Doubling R&D funding now is essential to: avoid long-term shortages keep food affordable mitigate climate effects stabilise supply chains protect global natural resources.
