When the world’s rules fracture, hunger follows

March 25, 2026

By Shaun Coffey FTSE FAIA CRSNZ FAICD

Two forces are now colliding with global food security, and neither begins in a farmer’s field. Conflict in Iran is escalating. At the same time, the rules that govern international trade continue to be bent, bypassed, or ignored. The result is a system under strain, where food is no longer insulated from power and politics.

The Middle East is not peripheral to global food flows. It is a hinge point. Disruption across Iran and surrounding corridors pushes up freight costs, destabilises energy markets, and drives volatility in food prices. For those already living on the edge, this is immediate. Scarcity sharpens. Access narrows. Choices disappear.

Yet the bigger risk sits elsewhere. The erosion of the multilateral trading system is turning food into a source of leverage. When tariffs are used as tools of contest and supply chains are redirected for advantage, the global food system becomes less a network of exchange and more a terrain of competition. Those with power adjust. Those without absorb the shock.

This is the uncomfortable truth. Food security cannot be separated from geopolitics. It is shaped by it. The system is under pressure, and we need to act before food insecurity becomes a deliberate outcome of a more contested world.

The path forward will not be easy. Cooperation is becoming harder, trust is thinner, and investment is being drawn toward the immediate rather than the essential. Rebuilding a system capable of feeding the world will require deliberate effort, sustained commitment, and leadership willing to treat food security as strategic infrastructure, not a secondary concern. Australia is not isolated from the shocks occurring, and that is why the current discussions on a domestic food security policy is timely.