Food demand is rising. Productivity growth is slowing. Present research investment is inadequate for the task ahead.
September 23, 2026
By Shaun Coffey FTSE FAIA CRSNZ FAICD
A new IFPRI report, Global Agrifood Systems Outlook to 2050, presents a clear warning. Global agriculture will need to produce considerably more food over the next 25 years, yet the productivity growth needed to meet this demand is slowing.
The report projects global demand for major food commodities to increase by between 25 and 47 per cent by 2050. Growth will be concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia. These regions will experience continuing population growth, rising incomes and changing diets.
Production is expected to increase across most commodities and regions. However, there is limited scope to meet demand by expanding agriculture onto new land. Expansion would intensify pressure on forests, biodiversity, water and other ecosystem services. In Latin America and sub–Saharan Africa, around half of projected production growth could still come from increases in harvested area. This is hardly a sustainable global strategy.
Productivity growth must therefore carry most of the load.
The report expects improvements in genetics, management, efficiency and mechanisation to provide the principal source of additional production. These gains will depend heavily on investment in agricultural research and development.
Yet productivity growth is already slowing.
Yields continue to rise across most crops and regions, but their annual rate of increase is declining. Climate change has reduced crop yield growth below what would have occurred without it. Increasing temperatures, changing rainfall, extreme events, and pressure on water resources will make future gains harder and more expensive.
This finding reinforces the work published earlier this year by Philip Pardey and colleagues. Their analysis warns of a global slowdown in agrifood research and development. Maintaining even the present rate of productivity growth will require a substantial increase in annual research investment. Accelerating productivity enough to meet demand, improve nutrition, and reduce pressure on natural resources will require even more.
Some estimates suggest global agrifood research investment needs to double. The exact requirement will vary among countries and research systems. The broad direction is difficult to dispute.
Agricultural research is slow magic. There can be a delay of 20 to 30 years between an initial research investment and widespread benefits in farmers’ fields. Decisions made about research funding today will shape food availability, prices and resilience during the 2040s and beyond.
The IFPRI outlook assumes continuing technological progress, partly driven by research investment. It does not calculate the funding required to produce this progress. This is a critical gap. Productivity gains in a model are not guaranteed gains in the field.
Governments and development partners need to determine the required investment level, then commit to it over time. Funding must support discovery, adaptation, research capability and adoption. Strong national research institutions and international partnerships will also be essential.
The central message is simple. Food demand is rising. Productivity growth is slowing. Present research investment is inadequate for the task ahead.
Progress remains possible. It now needs to be funded.
Sources: IFPRI, Global Agrifood Systems Outlook to 2050; University of Minnesota, Philip Pardey on the agrifood research funding challenge; Crawford Fund for Food Security, investment in agricultural research.
